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Climate change and shifting weather patterns have increasingly influenced military operations worldwide, creating unprecedented challenges for armed forces across the globe. These environmental changes affect strategic planning, troop movements, logistical support during conflicts, and the very infrastructure upon which military readiness depends. As the planet continues to warm and weather patterns become more unpredictable, military organizations must adapt to a rapidly changing operational environment that threatens both immediate tactical effectiveness and long-term strategic capabilities.
Understanding the Climate-Security Nexus
The 2010 US Quadrennial Defense Review was the first to identify climate change as a threat to national security, marking a significant shift in how military planners view environmental factors. Climate change presents risks to three elements of military effectiveness: readiness, operations and strategy. This recognition has prompted defense departments worldwide to reassess their operational doctrines and infrastructure planning to account for the multifaceted impacts of a changing climate. While the effects of climate change threaten military infrastructure, the impact they have on social systems could impose the most pressing security challenges. It envisions a world rippling with new threats as conflicts erupt over waning water supplies and disappearing farmland. The intersection of climate change and national security creates a complex web of challenges that extends far beyond traditional military concerns, encompassing humanitarian crises, resource conflicts, and regional instability.Effects on Military Strategies and Tactical Operations
Unpredictable weather conditions can fundamentally alter battlefield dynamics in ways that military planners must anticipate and address. Weather shapes the combat environment. It literally affects every aspect of military operations – from fire and maneuver to communications and logistics. Heavy rainfall, storms, and droughts impact the availability of resources and the mobility of forces, requiring commanders to adapt strategies continuously to account for these environmental factors.
Historical Weather Impacts on Military Outcomes
Throughout military history, weather has played a decisive role in determining the outcomes of major battles and campaigns. Napoleon lost because an unexpected storm the night before Waterloo bogged his artillery in mud. Conversely, The Allies triumphed on D-Day when they correctly predicted that a break in bad weather would allow the amphibious invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944. More recently, In 2003, the U.S.-led Multi-National Force – Iraq advance on Baghdad was delayed for several days by a massive sandstorm.
During the Gulf War, sandstorms resulted in limited visibility, which hindered anti-aircraft artillery effectiveness against aerial threats. Lessons from World War II are also pertinent, where the Battle of the Bulge was severely impacted by adverse winter weather. Snow and ice complicated logistical support and diminished operational capabilities, underscoring how environmental factors can delay reinforcements and affect troop morale.Climate-Specific Operational Challenges
At the tactical level, the changing climate and resultant extremes affect operations in desert, tropical, and cold climates. Tactics effective in one climate may be ineffective when applied in another. The high temperatures and humidity in the tropics are conducive to the growth of dense foliage which greatly affects tactical operations. Desert climates can range from extremely hot in the daytime to very cold at night, requiring added protective measures.In arctic environments, the challenges multiply significantly. A windchill factor of -26 F (-32 C) is considered the critical value for equipment and personnel operating in cold weather. The opposite extreme, 120 F (49 C), is the critical value for personnel operating in hot weather. These extreme temperature thresholds define the operational boundaries within which military forces must function, often requiring specialized equipment, training, and logistical support.
Weather Effects on Weapons Systems and Equipment
Factors such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed can affect projectile trajectories, engagement accuracy, and equipment performance. While achieving remarkable levels of accuracy and lethality, guided weapons remain vulnerable to weather. Laser and electro-optical guidance are affected by weather conditions including rain, snow, dust, haze, and smoke from fires. Infrared and radar guidance can be thrown off by clouds, smoke, water vapor and haze. Adverse weather conditions can compromise radar capabilities, reducing the effectiveness of detection and tracking systems. For instance, heavy rainfall can lead to signal distortion, hampering the timely engagement of aerial threats. Severe weather such as large hail, high winds, and heavy rains can halt flying operations and damage unprotected aircraft on the ground. Communication within the air domain is also susceptible to space weather effects such as ionospheric scintillation.Impact on Logistics and Supply Chains
Climate-related disruptions can severely hinder transportation and supply routes, creating cascading effects throughout military operations. Flooded roads, damaged infrastructure, and changing seasonal patterns complicate the delivery of essential supplies, affecting operational effectiveness and potentially compromising mission success.
Transportation and Mobility Challenges
Extreme weather events can cause delays and disruptions in plans for mobility, lines of communication, points of embarkation, logistics and support. Impactful weather can disrupt supply columns, aerial resupply, and medical evacuation. Rainy, humid, and dusty weather can cause more wear on equipment and require more preventive maintenance and additional stockpiling of spare parts. For example, climate change can place significant burdens on the supply chains and logistical capacity of armed forces engaged in “theater.” Extreme drought or flooding in areas where militaries are engaged in warfighting, for example, can compromise water supply lines, and thus threaten military personnel directly. The vulnerability of supply chains to weather disruptions requires military planners to develop redundant systems and alternative routes to ensure operational continuity.Resource Availability and Sustainment
Restoring national utilities, food production, water resources, etc. can be considerably hindered by the frequency of extreme weather. Extreme drying can also increase the likelihood of non-state actors using the seizure of water resources as leverage against populations and adversaries. This creates a dual challenge where military forces must not only secure their own supply lines but also potentially intervene to prevent resource-driven conflicts. Countries like Afghanistan that depend on surface-water irrigation could see widespread crop failures. Jordan could lose more than 70 percent of its surface water; millions of people there already receive water just one day a week. These resource scarcities create conditions that can destabilize entire regions, requiring military forces to adapt their operational planning to account for humanitarian crises and potential conflicts over dwindling resources.Environmental Challenges in Combat Zones
Modern combat zones face an array of environmental challenges that extend beyond traditional weather considerations. The increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters, combined with long-term climate shifts, create operational environments that are fundamentally different from those of previous decades.
Increased Frequency of Natural Disasters
They are getting closer to home, we’re being called more and more often for humanitarian assistance. We’re dealing with these devastating storms that are increasing in frequency. An increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters may also put strains on the capacity of armed forces to deliver humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). The convergence of climate change with other crises—such as pandemics, economic shocks, and extreme drought or flooding—could create “compound” risks that many countries are unprepared to manage, according to yesterday’s report. “Climate security risks will continue to intensify across all regions, with new disasters hitting before societies can recover from or adapt to the impact of previous ones,” it states.Altered Terrain and Landscapes
Climate change is fundamentally altering the physical geography of combat zones. Rising sea levels threaten coastal installations, while desertification changes the character of inland regions. Rising sea levels could swamp an area of Egypt nearly the size of Rhode Island, displacing 5.7 million people. These landscape changes require military forces to continuously update their operational maps and tactical assessments.
By 2050, the models predicted, Iran could see 30 days a year when the heat and humidity pose an extreme danger to human health. Such extreme conditions not only affect military personnel directly but also create humanitarian crises that may require military intervention, stretching resources and capabilities beyond traditional combat operations.Extended Periods of Extreme Weather
High heat, combined with high humidity, can create heat stroke conditions for personnel performing strenuous activities outdoors, such as long marches, steep climbs, and carrying heavy loads. Exposure to strong winds, dust, and heavy rain can be debilitating and disorienting. Operations may need to be timed to avoid these hazardous weather conditions. Together, these elements have a direct impact on personnel and vehicle performance. Excessively high temperatures cause heat-related injuries to personnel and vehicle engine wear that leads to equipment failure. The cumulative effect of prolonged exposure to extreme weather conditions can degrade unit readiness and combat effectiveness over time.Changes in Local Climate Conditions
Many of the common effects can be derived for planning purposes from the climate of the theater of operations. Special attention must be given to those elements of weather which may limit operations or preclude them altogether. For instance, operations in the tropics must be planned to consider the recurring cycle of the monsoon season. In continental Europe, strategy must be considered with severe winters and with the annual autumn and spring thaws affecting trafficability and cross-country movement.Threats to Military Infrastructure and Installations
Military installations worldwide face increasing threats from climate change and extreme weather events. These facilities, which serve as the backbone of military readiness and force projection capabilities, are experiencing unprecedented levels of environmental stress.
Coastal Base Vulnerabilities
Climate change effects such as sea level rise have the ability to compromise coastal military installations that are critical for such operations. Operating bases are at risk of being submerged by rising oceans, and military personnel could be retasked to help civilian populations during intensifying disasters. Hurricanes represent some of the most acute threats to military installations, given the concentration of major bases along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 marked an early inflection point, severely affecting naval installations across the Gulf Coast and disrupting port operations, housing, and maintenance facilities.Impact on Training and Readiness
Extreme heat may impact training, and changes to ocean buoyancy caused by melting ice may influence submarine operations. Damage to installation infrastructure, disruptions to training and operations, and stress on energy and water systems can quickly cascade into broader challenges for mission assurance and force readiness. The impacts of these weather events ranged from delays/cancellations of training to installation closures. These disruptions have cumulative effects on military readiness, as units lose critical training time and must divert resources to recovery and repair operations rather than maintaining combat proficiency.Infrastructure Damage and Operational Disruptions
US military installations—whether large coastal hubs, inland training ranges, logistics nodes, or forward-operating bases—function as essential national infrastructure. They host critical assets, serve as staging areas for operations, enable global force projection, and support the daily readiness of service members. Because these installations often sit in regions of strategic value that are also highly exposed to environmental hazards—coastal zones, river basins, arid regions, and fire-prone landscapes—they face an increasingly complex risk environment. Damage to installation infrastructure, disruptions to training and operations, and stress on energy and water systems can quickly cascade into broader challenges for mission assurance and force readiness.Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier
Climate change does not operate in isolation but rather amplifies existing security threats and creates new vulnerabilities. Military strategists increasingly recognize climate change as a “threat multiplier” that exacerbates regional tensions, resource competition, and humanitarian crises.
Regional Conflict and Instability
Climate change—under plausible scenarios like a major drought—could substantially worsen conflict in a way that most existing models don’t capture. If it ever comes to that, climate change will be one of several reasons—a threat multiplier. The interaction between climate stress and other conflict drivers creates complex security challenges that require comprehensive military planning. A report last month by the Council on Strategic Risks found that climate change could increase the potential for conflict between India and China, in part by intensifying competition over vital water resources. Both sides have threatened military action in disputes over water resources, illustrating how environmental stress can escalate into potential military confrontations.Humanitarian Crises and Disaster Response
CENTCOM may be called upon less to fight wars, and more to airdrop humanitarian supplies or evacuate people from disaster zones. It may be called upon less to fight wars, and more to airdrop humanitarian supplies or evacuate people from disaster zones. This shift in mission focus requires military forces to develop new capabilities and operational doctrines that emphasize humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. It should also plan to contribute more to stability operations in the region, working to prevent possible climate crises like the one in Egypt from tipping into open conflict. The preventive role of military forces in climate-related crises represents a significant evolution in how armed forces contribute to national and international security.Resource Competition and Water Security
Increasing water and food shortages, for example, can drive internal friction or organized crime. Warming ocean waters could deplete rich fisheries off Oman and Yemen. These resource pressures create conditions for conflict that military forces must be prepared to address, either through direct intervention or by supporting diplomatic and humanitarian efforts.Military Adaptation and Climate Strategies
Recognizing the profound impacts of climate change on military operations, defense organizations worldwide are developing comprehensive strategies to adapt to the changing environment while maintaining operational effectiveness.
Institutional Climate Strategies
“As the Army optimizes the use of fuel, water, electricity, and other resources, we increase our resilience while saving taxpayer dollars and reducing our impact on the planet,” said Secretary of the Army Christine E. Wormuth. “The Army will mitigate and adapt to climate change, and in doing so gain a strategic advantage, especially as we continue to outpace our near-peer competitors.” According to the strategy, the Army will incorporate the latest climate science knowledge into its training modules. The Army has also adapted to operations in extreme cold by increasing the frequency of cold weather exercises in Iceland, Norway and Canada, conducting six such exercises in 2020.Technological Innovation and Equipment Modernization
Transitioning to using more electric vehicle options will help the Army achieve tactical self-sufficiency. The Army spends a significant amount of its sustainment requirement on its tactical vehicle fleet. The transition to electric will reduce energy needs, Farnan said. This modernization effort addresses both operational efficiency and environmental sustainability. Thus, whereas in the past decarbonization has been seen as a goal that must be balanced against the need to maintain operational effectiveness, in the years ahead, operational effectiveness may well come to depend on decarbonization. This represents a fundamental shift in military thinking about the relationship between environmental sustainability and combat capability.Training and Personnel Preparation
Finally, the Army will focus on training its Soldiers to prepare for operations amid the impacts of climate change. You’re always going to have to be able to operate regularly in extreme environments. This training emphasis ensures that military personnel can maintain effectiveness across a wider range of environmental conditions. Training personnel to operate under various weather conditions enhances resilience. This preparation ensures that crews can effectively manage equipment and maintain combat readiness, regardless of environmental challenges. The investment in climate-focused training represents a recognition that environmental literacy is now a core military competency.Operational Planning and Intelligence Integration
An understanding of weather information is a key enabler of airpower and should be integrated at every decision point during the planning, execution, assessment, and sustainment of military operations. By integrating weather considerations into tactical planning, military operations can significantly enhance their success rate. It might consider establishing a center that focuses full-time on climate-related security issues. It should also look for ways to leverage its expertise—and the expertise of its partners in the region—to help countries weather the changing climate. This institutional approach ensures that climate considerations are embedded throughout military planning and operations.The Military’s Environmental Footprint
While military forces adapt to climate change impacts, there is growing recognition of the military sector’s own contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation. This creates a complex dynamic where armed forces must simultaneously prepare for climate impacts while reducing their environmental footprint.
Military Emissions and Climate Impact
A 2022 report by the Conflict and Environment Observatory suggested that militaries could account for around 5.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions — but that could be an underestimate. According to a 2019 study by Brown University’s Costs of War project, the Defense Department is the U.S. government’s largest fossil fuel consumer. Energy use at military bases and fuel use from the operation of military equipment – such as aircraft, naval vessels and land vehicles – are often seen as the main contributors to military GHG emissions. Contemporary warfare is dominated by aviation. This emits vast quantities of GHGs during production and operation – in 2017 alone the US Air Force purchased US $4.9 billion of fuel.Reporting Challenges and Transparency
Nations participating in the Paris climate agreement are not required by the United Nations to report the carbon emissions from their armies and aircraft or warships and weapons. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, obliges signatories to publish annual GHG emissions data, but military emissions reporting is voluntary and often not included. We have found that even when it is reported, military GHG emission data is often incomplete. There needs to be far greater transparency and more robust reporting so that emissions can be managed and reduced.Environmental Degradation from Military Operations
Modern warfare not only results in human casualties but also leaves behind a legacy of environmental degradation that can persist for decades, if not centuries. War and conflict, as illustrated by examples from Ukraine, Vietnam, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Afghanistan, and currently occurring ones, have led to increasing emissions, significant loss of biodiversity, ecosystem degradation, and disruption of natural habitats, affecting land and water life.Future Projections and Long-Term Implications
Looking ahead, the relationship between climate change and military operations will only intensify. Defense planners must prepare for a future where environmental factors play an increasingly central role in determining military strategy, force structure, and operational capabilities.
Projected Climate Scenarios
Researchers modeled a world up to 45 years from now in which efforts to slow climate change had largely failed. The hottest places were that much hotter, and the driest that much drier. Climate stress will become more intense and more frequent throughout its area of operations. The past two decades have produced clear evidence that extreme weather hazards in the United States are intensifying in both frequency and severity. This trend is expected to continue and accelerate, requiring military forces to develop increasingly sophisticated adaptation strategies.Evolving Mission Requirements
For CENTCOM, the implications of RAND’s research and analysis are clear. Military organizations must prepare for a broader range of missions that extend beyond traditional combat operations to include extensive humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and stability operations in climate-affected regions. More than that, the climate crisis is having adverse impacts on a wide range of other national security and defence concerns. More than that, the climate crisis is having adverse impacts on a wide range of other national security and defence concerns. The interconnected nature of climate and security challenges requires integrated approaches that address both environmental and military concerns simultaneously.Strategic Adaptation Requirements
The article concludes by identifying core lessons for future planning and adaptation—arguing that understanding these events is essential not only to protect physical infrastructure but also to sustain long-term readiness and national security in an era of accelerating environmental change. Achieving net-zero emissions in the defense sector is a complex task that demands strategic planning, innovation, and potentially significant changes in military operations, procurement, and underlying military doctrines. This transformation will require sustained commitment and investment across all aspects of military organization and operations.Comprehensive Environmental Challenges
The full scope of environmental challenges facing military operations extends across multiple domains and operational contexts. Understanding these challenges in their totality is essential for developing effective adaptation strategies.
- Increased frequency of natural disasters: Military installations and operations face more frequent hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and other extreme weather events that disrupt training, damage infrastructure, and require extensive recovery efforts.
- Altered terrain and landscapes: Rising sea levels, desertification, permafrost melting, and changing vegetation patterns fundamentally alter the physical environment where military forces operate, requiring continuous updates to tactical planning and geographic intelligence.
- Extended periods of extreme weather: Prolonged heat waves, droughts, and cold snaps create sustained operational challenges that affect personnel health, equipment performance, and logistical sustainability over extended timeframes.
- Changes in local climate conditions: Shifting precipitation patterns, altered seasonal cycles, and changing temperature norms require military forces to adapt their operational planning to account for new environmental baselines in regions where they operate.
- Infrastructure vulnerability: Military bases, particularly coastal installations, face increasing threats from sea-level rise, storm surge, and erosion that threaten critical facilities and force projection capabilities.
- Supply chain disruptions: Climate-related impacts on transportation networks, resource availability, and logistics infrastructure create vulnerabilities in military supply chains that must be addressed through redundancy and adaptation.
- Personnel health and safety: Extreme temperatures, poor air quality from wildfires, and exposure to severe weather conditions create health risks for military personnel that require enhanced protective measures and medical support.
- Equipment degradation: Extreme heat, humidity, dust, and precipitation accelerate wear on military equipment, requiring increased maintenance, more frequent replacement cycles, and development of more resilient technologies.
International Cooperation and Coordination
Addressing the intersection of climate change and military operations requires international cooperation and coordination. No single nation can effectively address these challenges in isolation, making multilateral approaches essential for global security.
The U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) generally take the lead on humanitarian assistance missions. The United Nations and NATO oversee peacekeeping and stabilization efforts. These partnerships are increasingly important as climate-related security challenges transcend national boundaries. Tackling the threats posed by climate change is expected to be a key part of the Group of Seven meeting later this week and NATO on June 14. International forums provide opportunities for military organizations to share best practices, coordinate responses, and develop common approaches to climate-related security challenges.Policy Recommendations and Best Practices
Based on the extensive evidence of climate impacts on military operations, several key policy recommendations emerge for defense organizations worldwide. These recommendations address both immediate operational needs and long-term strategic adaptation requirements.
First, military organizations must integrate climate considerations into all levels of planning and operations. Finally the nation’s largest military branch will incorporate climate changes security implications in its strategy, planning, acquisition processes and its supply chain. This integration should extend from strategic planning documents to tactical-level operational orders.
Second, investment in climate-resilient infrastructure is essential. Military installations must be hardened against extreme weather events, with particular attention to coastal bases vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surge. This includes not only physical infrastructure improvements but also development of distributed and redundant systems that can maintain operations even when primary facilities are compromised.
Third, enhanced weather forecasting and environmental intelligence capabilities are critical. The weather community then tailors and integrates information from the repositories into planning and decision-making processes at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. Modern forecasting technologies must be leveraged to provide military commanders with accurate, timely information about environmental conditions.
Fourth, military forces must develop greater operational flexibility to adapt to changing environmental conditions. This includes maintaining capabilities across a wider range of climate conditions, developing alternative operational concepts when primary approaches are compromised by weather, and building organizational resilience that allows rapid adaptation to unexpected environmental challenges.
The Role of Technology and Innovation
Technological innovation plays a crucial role in helping military forces adapt to climate change while reducing their environmental impact. Advances in materials science, energy systems, and information technology offer opportunities to enhance operational effectiveness in challenging environmental conditions.
Development of more energy-efficient vehicles and equipment reduces logistical burdens while decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced materials that perform better in extreme temperatures, humidity, and other environmental stresses enhance equipment reliability. Improved weather forecasting systems using artificial intelligence and advanced sensors provide better situational awareness for operational planning.
Renewable energy systems for forward operating bases reduce dependence on vulnerable fuel supply chains while decreasing environmental impact. Water purification and conservation technologies address resource scarcity in arid environments. Climate-controlled protective equipment helps personnel maintain effectiveness in extreme temperature conditions.
Conclusion: Preparing for an Uncertain Future
The impact of climate change and shifting weather patterns on military operations represents one of the most significant security challenges of the 21st century. As environmental conditions continue to change, military forces worldwide must adapt their strategies, capabilities, and infrastructure to maintain effectiveness in an increasingly unpredictable operational environment.
The far-reaching impact of war, military operations, and the military-industrial complex on biodiversity and climate change underscores the urgent need for global peace and environmental management. The relationship between military operations and climate change is bidirectional—climate change affects military operations, while military activities contribute to climate change.Success in this challenging environment requires comprehensive approaches that address immediate operational needs while building long-term resilience. Military organizations must invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, develop adaptive operational doctrines, enhance environmental intelligence capabilities, and foster international cooperation on climate-related security challenges.
Thus, whereas in the past decarbonization has been seen as a goal that must be balanced against the need to maintain operational effectiveness, in the years ahead, operational effectiveness may well come to depend on decarbonization. This fundamental shift in thinking recognizes that environmental sustainability and military effectiveness are increasingly interdependent rather than competing priorities.The military organizations that successfully navigate these challenges will be those that embrace adaptation, invest in innovation, and recognize climate change as a central factor in national security planning. As weather patterns continue to shift and environmental conditions become more extreme, the ability to operate effectively across a wide range of climate scenarios will increasingly define military capability and strategic advantage.
For more information on climate security challenges, visit the Department of Defense Climate Adaptation initiative. Additional resources on military environmental planning can be found at the RAND Corporation’s Climate Change Research page. The International Military Council on Climate and Security provides ongoing analysis of climate-related security issues. Academic perspectives on military adaptation can be explored through International Affairs journal. Finally, the Conflict and Environment Observatory offers detailed research on the environmental dimensions of military operations.