The Role of Climate Change in Intensifying Droughts Across Southern Africa

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Climate change has emerged as one of the most critical factors driving the intensification of droughts across Southern Africa, fundamentally altering the region’s water security, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem health. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found that droughts are becoming increasingly common and severe due to climate change. This transformation is reshaping the lives of millions of people who depend on rain-fed agriculture and natural water sources for their survival.

Southern Africa is reeling from the severe effects of the 2023/2024 El Niño episode, which has caused the worst drought ever recorded across the region. The crisis has exposed the vulnerability of countries including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana, Namibia, Malawi, Mozambique, and Angola to climate-related water scarcity. Africa is warming faster than the global average, with parts of the continent experiencing temperature increases up to 1.5 times the global mean. This accelerated warming is creating unprecedented challenges for a region already characterized by limited water resources and high climate variability.

Understanding the Climate-Drought Connection in Southern Africa

The relationship between climate change and drought in Southern Africa is complex and multifaceted. While natural climate variability has always influenced rainfall patterns in the region, human-induced climate change is now amplifying these variations and creating new challenges. Results of the trend analysis reveal the existence in almost the entire Southern Africa of statistically significant trends of increasing temperature and potential evapotranspiration and decreasing precipitation.

The region’s climate is characterized by extreme variability, with prolonged droughts interspersed by periods of generally below-normal rainfall. This natural variability is now being exacerbated by global warming, creating conditions that are pushing communities, ecosystems, and economies to their breaking points. Understanding these dynamics is essential for developing effective adaptation strategies and building resilience in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions.

The Role of El Niño and Climate Patterns

Southern Africa is grappling with an unprecedented drought triggered by El Niño, a recurring climate phenomenon known for its capacity to exacerbate either dry or stormy weather patterns. The 2023/2024 El Niño event has been particularly devastating, with the 2023/2024 El Niño event being one of the strongest on record.

Research has shown that droughts are twice as likely to occur in El Niño years, making El Niño a key driver of the 2024 event. February 2024 was the driest February in the 40-year data record for an area spanning much of Zambia, Zimbabwe, southeastern Angola, and northern Botswana. This extreme dryness during what should have been the peak of the rainy season had catastrophic consequences for agriculture and water supplies across the region.

The interaction between El Niño and climate change creates a particularly dangerous combination. While El Niño naturally suppresses rainfall in Southern Africa, the warming climate intensifies the impacts through increased evaporation and altered atmospheric circulation patterns. This synergy between natural variability and human-induced warming is making droughts more severe and more difficult to predict and manage.

Rising Temperatures and Increased Evaporation

One of the most direct ways climate change intensifies droughts in Southern Africa is through rising temperatures and their effect on evaporation rates. Warmer temperatures enhance evaporation, which reduces surface water and dries out soils and vegetation, making periods with low precipitation drier than they would be in cooler conditions. This creates a vicious cycle where higher temperatures not only reduce water availability directly but also make existing water sources less effective.

From October 2023 to March 2024, rising temperatures and a severe lack of precipitation have intensified and expanded progressively across Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Namibia, with record-high temperatures dating back to 1960 exacerbating the situation. These unprecedented temperature levels are not isolated events but part of a long-term warming trend that is fundamentally altering the region’s climate.

The impact of rising temperatures extends beyond simple water loss through evaporation. The strain on water resources is amplified by higher demand for irrigated water, as increased temperature and evaporation rates across the country reduce the availability of rainwater for use. This creates additional pressure on already stressed water systems, as farmers and communities must extract more water from rivers, dams, and groundwater sources to compensate for increased evaporative losses.

Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture Depletion

Higher temperatures increase not only direct evaporation from water bodies but also evapotranspiration from soils and vegetation. This process removes moisture from the root zone where crops and natural vegetation access water, leading to rapid soil moisture depletion even when some rainfall occurs. Soil moisture conditions at the root zone in March 2024 showed orange and red areas depicting deficits in soil moisture.

The combination of reduced rainfall and increased evapotranspiration creates particularly challenging conditions for agriculture. Plants face water stress even when total seasonal rainfall might appear adequate on paper, because the moisture evaporates before it can be effectively utilized. This phenomenon helps explain why the agricultural sector has been severely impacted, with extreme conditions affecting the critical food growing periods and leading to acute food insecurity in most regions of the Zambezi basin.

Impact on Water Storage Infrastructure

Rising temperatures and increased evaporation are having dramatic effects on the region’s water storage infrastructure. The impact of rising temperatures and increased evaporation is evident in the shrinking levels of major dams across South Africa, with the Theewaterskloof Dam’s water levels reaching critically low levels, with exposed dry land replacing the once vast expanse of water.

The Zambezi river is flowing at very low levels for the season which is severely disrupting ecosystems. These reduced river flows affect not only water availability for human use but also hydroelectric power generation, which many countries in the region depend upon for electricity. The interconnected nature of water, energy, and food systems means that drought impacts cascade across multiple sectors of the economy.

Shifting Rainfall Patterns and Precipitation Variability

Climate change is fundamentally altering rainfall patterns across Southern Africa, creating new challenges for water management and agricultural planning. Climate change has led to significant changes in rainfall patterns across South Africa, with some regions experiencing increased rainfall intensity resulting in flash floods and soil erosion, while other areas are witnessing decreased rainfall leading to drought conditions.

Temporal and Spatial Rainfall Changes

The timing and distribution of rainfall are becoming increasingly unpredictable. Climate change is altering the timing of water availability, and some climate models find that warming increases precipitation variability, meaning there will be more periods of extreme drought. This increased variability makes it difficult for farmers to plan planting and harvesting schedules, and for water managers to predict reservoir inflows.

From late January through mid-March, parts of Southern Africa received half or less of their typical rainfall. This dramatic reduction during the critical growing season had devastating consequences for crop production. The spatial distribution of these rainfall deficits was uneven, with some areas experiencing near-total rainfall failure while neighboring regions received closer to normal amounts.

Intensity Versus Frequency Changes

One of the most challenging aspects of changing rainfall patterns is the shift toward less frequent but more intense rainfall events. When rain does fall, it often comes in heavy downpours that lead to runoff rather than soil infiltration. This means that even when total seasonal rainfall appears adequate, the water is not effectively captured and stored in soils or aquifers where it can be used by plants and communities.

Climate change is making certain regions drier, and in some areas, droughts can persist through a vicious cycle in which very dry soils and diminished plant cover absorb more solar radiation and heat up, encouraging the formation of high pressure systems that further suppress rainfall, leading an already dry area to become even drier. This positive feedback mechanism can lock regions into prolonged drought conditions that are difficult to break.

Increasing drought risk hotspots in the SPI and SPEI across all timescales appear in the north central rainforest region, south and southeast of Southern Africa, while decreasing in the northwest coast, central west region, and in the northeast more recently. These regional variations mean that climate change impacts are not uniform across Southern Africa, requiring tailored adaptation strategies for different areas.

Some regions face the prospect of becoming significantly drier over the coming decades. Increased drying is highly probable in the west, particularly in the Western Cape where the mean decline in average annual run-off is around 13%. Meanwhile, other areas may experience increased flooding risks, creating a complex mosaic of climate challenges across the region.

Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

Agriculture is the sector most directly and severely affected by climate-induced droughts in Southern Africa. The region’s heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture makes it particularly vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns and increased evaporation. African agriculture is mostly based on rain-fed farming with less than 10% of cultivated land in the continent irrigated, making the impact of climate change and variability very pronounced.

Crop Production Challenges

Maize is the single most important cereal crop in southern Africa, accounting for a majority of the region’s cereal production and 21 percent of the average person’s diet, and its success or failure can affect the amount of food available. The 2023/2024 drought had catastrophic effects on maize production across the region.

Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe suffered the worst drought in at least two decades, with cereal harvests in Zambia and Zimbabwe 43 per cent and 50 per cent below the five-year average, respectively. These massive production shortfalls have direct consequences for food availability and prices, pushing millions of people into food insecurity.

Delayed planting linked to late 2023 rains, followed by a 30-day dry spell and above-average temperatures led to crop failure in most of the country in 2024. The combination of delayed rainfall onset, mid-season dry spells, and high temperatures creates multiple stress points during the growing season, making it nearly impossible for crops to reach maturity and produce adequate yields.

Livestock and Pastoral Systems

Livestock farming faces severe challenges under drought conditions. Livestock farming is under strain due to limited water resources, and as pastures dry up and water becomes scarce, farmers face the difficult choice of reducing their livestock numbers or incurring additional costs to access water for their animals.

The impact on pastoral communities can be devastating. Devastating floods in South Sudan in recent months left thousands of herders without their most precious possessions: goats, cows and cattle, which are central to people’s lives and age-old customs including marriage and cultural traditions. While this example involves flooding rather than drought, it illustrates the vulnerability of livestock-dependent communities to climate extremes of all types.

Food Insecurity and Humanitarian Crisis

The agricultural impacts of drought translate directly into food insecurity for millions of people. FEWS NET experts estimated in March 2024 that millions of people faced “crisis level” food insecurity in Zimbabwe, Malawi, central Mozambique, and Madagascar. The scale of the humanitarian crisis is staggering, with entire countries facing acute food shortages.

18 countries in Africa faced acute food crises in 2024, with eight countries seeing a significant increase in the number of people facing hunger compared to 2023. The drought’s impact extends beyond immediate food shortages to affect nutrition, health, and long-term development prospects. Children facing malnutrition during critical developmental periods may suffer lifelong consequences, perpetuating cycles of poverty and vulnerability.

During the lean season in early 2025, 5.9 million people in rural areas and 1.7 million people in urban areas are expected to be food insecure in Zimbabwe. The fact that urban areas are also affected demonstrates how drought impacts ripple through entire economies, affecting not just rural farming communities but also city dwellers who depend on agricultural production for food supplies.

Water Resource Challenges and Scarcity

Southern Africa faces fundamental water scarcity challenges that are being intensified by climate change. South Africa is already a water-scarce nation receiving insufficient and unreliable rainfall, with the country receiving a mean annual precipitation of 497mm/year, almost 50% less than the global average of 860mm/year. This baseline scarcity makes the region particularly vulnerable to any additional stresses from climate change.

Surface Water and River Systems

Despite a slight improvement in precipitation in recent months, water resources remain at critical levels in the affected regions, and in major river basins including the Zambezi in central Africa, the lack of rainfall has resulted in reduced river flows in the past year, with severe ecological, economic, humanitarian and social consequences.

The Zambezi River basin, which supports millions of people across multiple countries, has been particularly hard hit. Reduced river flows affect not only water availability for drinking and irrigation but also hydroelectric power generation. Zambia experienced low hydroelectric capability due to decreased precipitation and low reservoir water levels. This creates energy shortages that further compound economic challenges and limit development opportunities.

Groundwater Depletion

As surface water sources become less reliable, communities and farmers increasingly turn to groundwater. However, this resource is also under stress from climate change and overexploitation. Rising global temperatures accompanying climate change have intensified the hydrological cycle that leads to drier dry seasons, thus increasing the risk of more extreme and frequent droughts, significantly impacting the availability, quality and quantity of water due to reduced river flows and reservoir storage, lowering of water tables and drying up of aquifers in the northern and southern regions of Africa.

Groundwater depletion is particularly concerning because aquifers recharge slowly, and once depleted, they may take decades or centuries to recover. The combination of reduced recharge from decreased rainfall and increased extraction to compensate for surface water shortages creates an unsustainable trajectory for groundwater resources across the region.

Water Quality Concerns

Drought conditions also affect water quality, not just quantity. As water levels in rivers and reservoirs drop, pollutant concentrations increase, making water less safe for drinking and other uses. The drought led to dramatic water shortages, particularly in Zambia and Zimbabwe, where water supply infrastructure is underdeveloped, and as a consequence, the countries have been battling major outbreaks of cholera and other waterborne diseases.

The public health implications of reduced water quality during droughts can be severe, particularly in areas with limited access to water treatment infrastructure. Communities may be forced to use contaminated water sources, leading to disease outbreaks that further strain already stressed health systems.

Ecosystem and Biodiversity Impacts

The effects of climate-intensified droughts extend far beyond human communities to affect natural ecosystems and biodiversity across Southern Africa. The scorching effect of droughts leads to environmental degradation – desertification and bio-diversity loss, and the negative impact of drought on the environment cannot be over-emphasised.

Habitat Loss and Species Stress

Prolonged droughts create severe stress for wildlife and natural ecosystems. Water sources that animals depend on dry up, forcing wildlife to concentrate around remaining water points or migrate to new areas. This can lead to increased human-wildlife conflict as animals move into agricultural areas in search of water and food.

Plant communities also suffer under drought conditions, with many species unable to survive extended periods without adequate moisture. Although unsustainable use of natural resources is widely accepted as the root cause of such problems, there is no doubt that drought plays an accelerating role in the processes of desertification and biodiversity loss. The loss of vegetation cover further exacerbates drought conditions by reducing soil moisture retention and increasing surface temperatures.

Aquatic Ecosystems

Rivers, wetlands, and other aquatic ecosystems face particular challenges during droughts. Reduced water flows and lower water levels stress fish populations and other aquatic species. Some wetlands may dry up completely during severe droughts, eliminating critical habitat for waterfowl and other species that depend on these ecosystems.

The ecological consequences of drought can persist long after rains return. Ecosystems that have been severely degraded may not recover to their previous state, leading to permanent changes in species composition and ecosystem function. This loss of ecological resilience makes future droughts even more damaging, creating a downward spiral of ecosystem degradation.

Forest and Woodland Impacts

Only 14.3% of South Africa’s land is under closed canopy forest, and any further loss of forest cover would thus be a tragedy. Drought stress makes trees more vulnerable to pests, diseases, and wildfires, potentially leading to widespread forest die-off in severely affected areas.

The loss of forest cover has cascading effects on water cycles, as forests play important roles in regulating local and regional rainfall patterns through evapotranspiration. Deforestation and forest degradation can therefore contribute to further drying, creating another positive feedback that intensifies drought conditions.

Economic and Social Consequences

The economic impacts of climate-intensified droughts in Southern Africa are profound and far-reaching. Africa’s economies are heavily reliant on agriculture, which accounts for over 65% of employment and 30% of GDP in many countries, and when crops fail due to drought or floods, the ripple effects are felt across the entire economy.

Agricultural Economic Losses

In 2024, the economic toll of climate change in Africa was estimated at over $10 billion, including losses in agricultural production, damage to infrastructure, and the costs of responding to climate-related disasters. These direct economic losses represent only part of the total impact, as they do not capture the long-term consequences of reduced investment, disrupted education, and compromised health.

Crop production has been severely affected by water shortages, with farmers struggling to maintain their agricultural operations, and reduced water availability leading to decreased crop yields, affecting not only the livelihoods of farmers but also the affordability and accessibility of food for the general population. Rising food prices hit the poorest households hardest, as they spend a larger proportion of their income on food.

Energy Sector Impacts

Many Southern African countries depend heavily on hydroelectric power generation, which is directly affected by drought conditions. When reservoir levels drop, power generation capacity declines, leading to electricity shortages and load shedding. These power cuts affect businesses, industries, and households, further constraining economic activity and development.

The probability of continued low river flows and below-average precipitation through June poses further threats to agriculture, ecosystems, energy production and food security in the region. The interconnection between water, energy, and food systems means that drought impacts cascade across multiple sectors, amplifying overall economic losses.

Social Displacement and Migration

Floods, heatwaves and droughts forced 700,000 people out of their homes across the continent last year. Climate-induced displacement creates humanitarian challenges and can lead to social tensions in receiving areas. Rural-to-urban migration driven by agricultural failures puts additional pressure on urban infrastructure and services.

Erratic weather patterns across Africa are hindering farming, driving food insecurity and displacing people who have already had to flee war already. The combination of climate stress and conflict creates particularly severe humanitarian crises, as displaced populations face multiple, compounding vulnerabilities.

Health Impacts

Drought conditions have direct and indirect effects on public health. Water scarcity forces communities to use unsafe water sources, leading to waterborne disease outbreaks. Malnutrition resulting from food insecurity weakens immune systems and makes populations more vulnerable to infectious diseases. Heat stress during drought periods can cause direct health impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations including children, elderly people, and those with chronic health conditions.

The health system impacts extend beyond immediate disease treatment to affect long-term development outcomes. Children who experience malnutrition during critical developmental periods may suffer permanent cognitive and physical impairments, affecting their educational achievement and future economic productivity.

Vulnerability Factors and Adaptation Challenges

Several factors make Southern Africa particularly vulnerable to climate-intensified droughts and limit the region’s capacity to adapt effectively. Understanding these vulnerability factors is essential for developing appropriate responses.

Dependence on Rain-Fed Agriculture

Reliance on rain-fed subsistence crop production and drought-sensitive water sources result in chronic high vulnerability to rainfall anomalies, and limited coping capacity. The lack of irrigation infrastructure means that farmers have no buffer against rainfall variability, making them completely dependent on favorable weather conditions.

Expanding irrigation could reduce vulnerability, but this requires significant investment in infrastructure and may not be sustainable in water-scarce regions. Alternative approaches such as drought-resistant crop varieties, improved water harvesting, and soil moisture conservation techniques may offer more feasible pathways to increased resilience.

Infrastructure Deficits

Many countries in Southern Africa face significant infrastructure challenges that limit their ability to manage water resources effectively and respond to droughts. Water security is a major challenge in Southern Africa where climate change, weak governance, and aging infrastructure threaten sustainable water access.

Inadequate water storage capacity, poorly maintained distribution systems, and limited monitoring networks all constrain effective water management. Continued investments in, and maintenance of, the water supply system will be vital to keep negative impacts to a minimum. However, many countries face fiscal constraints that limit their ability to make necessary infrastructure investments.

Governance and Institutional Challenges

Poor institutional coordination and limited investment further constrain effective water management. Weak governance can undermine drought response efforts and limit the effectiveness of adaptation investments. Corruption in the water sector diverts resources away from needed infrastructure and services, exacerbating water scarcity.

Corruption in the water sector globally is well documented, including in South Africa, and the poor, who are least economically resilient, are worst affected, as graft exacerbates water conflict by directly contributing to scarcity and denying much-needed resources to ensure water availability and access.

Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities

Multiple drivers contributed to the currently high, and rising, food insecurity and malnutrition levels including several years with high food prices, ongoing recovery from floods, as well as agricultural pests and diseases. These pre-existing vulnerabilities mean that communities enter drought periods already stressed, with limited reserves and coping capacity.

Poverty limits households’ ability to invest in drought-resilient practices or to purchase food when local production fails. Gender inequalities mean that women, who often bear primary responsibility for water collection and food preparation, face particular burdens during droughts. Limited access to education and information constrains communities’ ability to adopt improved practices or access early warning information.

Response Efforts and Humanitarian Assistance

The severity of recent droughts has triggered significant humanitarian response efforts across Southern Africa. SADC has declared a Regional Emergency and launched a Humanitarian Appeal to request for assistance from International Cooperating Partners. This regional coordination represents an important step in mobilizing resources to address the crisis.

Emergency Food and Cash Assistance

WFP needs US$147 million to provide food and cash assistance to over 7.2 million people across the region up to March 2025, and WFP and partners are providing food and cash-based transfers, targeting districts that have maize shortfalls and high food prices. These emergency interventions are essential for preventing famine and saving lives in the short term.

WFP is providing specialized nutritious food to children under 5, pregnant and breastfeeding women, and elderly and chronically ill people in Angola, Malawi, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Targeting vulnerable groups helps ensure that those at greatest risk of malnutrition receive appropriate support.

School Feeding Programs

Daily nutritious meals ensure students affected by food shortages can continue their education, while reducing the burden on struggling families in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia and Zambia. School feeding programs serve multiple purposes, supporting both nutrition and education outcomes while providing relief to food-insecure households.

Maintaining school attendance during droughts is important for preventing long-term development setbacks. When children drop out of school due to hunger or the need to work, they may never return, perpetuating cycles of poverty and limiting future opportunities.

Climate Risk Insurance

The WFP and the Zimbabwean government have tapped into climate change insurance, cash transfers and food aid to urgently feed the population. Climate risk insurance represents an innovative approach to drought response, providing rapid funding when drought conditions are detected, enabling faster response before conditions become catastrophic.

Insurance policies help protect vulnerable people in the immediate aftermath of climate shocks. Expanding access to climate risk insurance could improve drought response capacity, though challenges remain in making such insurance affordable and accessible to the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

Building Long-Term Resilience and Adaptation

While emergency response is essential for addressing immediate humanitarian needs, building long-term resilience to climate-intensified droughts requires sustained investment in adaptation measures. There is a need for action to grow and strengthen resilience in communities to future climate shocks.

Climate-Smart Agriculture

Transforming agricultural systems to be more resilient to drought is essential for long-term food security. This includes promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, improving soil moisture conservation through practices like mulching and conservation agriculture, and developing small-scale irrigation systems where feasible.

WFP and communities have established over 70,000 gardens and built and rehabilitated more than 1 million climate-adaptation assets such as small irrigation schemes. These community-level investments in climate adaptation can significantly improve resilience to future droughts while providing immediate livelihood benefits.

Diversifying agricultural production beyond maize to include more drought-tolerant crops can reduce vulnerability to rainfall variability. Traditional crops and varieties that have evolved in local conditions may offer important genetic resources for breeding improved drought-resistant varieties.

Water Resource Management

Improving water resource management is critical for building drought resilience. This includes investing in water storage infrastructure, improving water use efficiency, protecting and restoring watersheds, and developing integrated water resource management approaches that balance competing demands.

Urgent international support and coordinated water resource management are crucial to mitigate and cope with the impacts of the drought crisis and identify adaptation strategies. Transboundary cooperation is particularly important in Southern Africa, where many river basins cross national borders and require coordinated management.

Rainwater harvesting at household and community levels can provide supplementary water sources during dry periods. Protecting and restoring wetlands and other natural water storage systems can improve landscape-level water retention and reduce flood and drought risks.

Early Warning Systems and Preparedness

Effective early warning systems, anticipatory action, and coordinated emergency response efforts are in place, and could be further strengthened by commitments for shock responsive social protection systems. Improving drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities enables earlier response, potentially preventing crises before they become catastrophic.

Linking early warning information to anticipatory action mechanisms can trigger response measures before drought impacts become severe. This might include pre-positioning food stocks, providing cash transfers to enable households to purchase food before prices spike, or distributing drought-resistant seeds before planting seasons.

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation

Protecting and restoring natural ecosystems can provide important drought resilience benefits. Forests and wetlands help regulate water cycles, store water during wet periods, and release it gradually during dry periods. Preventing deforestation and restoring degraded lands can improve landscape-level water retention and reduce drought vulnerability.

High deforestation rates are a major driver of environmental degradation across the countries, exacerbating risk and impacts associated with drought. Addressing deforestation through improved land governance, alternative livelihoods, and reforestation programs can help break the cycle of environmental degradation and increasing drought vulnerability.

The Path Forward: Integrating Climate Action and Development

Addressing climate-intensified droughts in Southern Africa requires integrating climate adaptation into broader development planning and decision-making. Findings pinpoint drought hotspots in regions with moderate-to-high population density and agricultural systems that involve species vital for food security and of considerable socioeconomic and commercial importance, emphasising the significance of results for managers and decision-makers.

Climate Finance and Investment

Scaling up climate adaptation in Southern Africa requires significant increases in climate finance. Developed countries have committed to providing climate finance to support adaptation in vulnerable developing countries, but these commitments must be fulfilled and expanded to meet the scale of the challenge.

Investments in climate adaptation can generate significant economic returns by reducing disaster losses, protecting agricultural productivity, and supporting sustainable development. However, accessing climate finance remains challenging for many countries and communities, requiring simplified procedures and increased support for proposal development.

Regional Cooperation

SADC, the United Nations and partners reaffirmed their commitment to work together to strengthen regional disaster preparedness and response mechanisms, through shared linkages for equal development for all Member States and to increase investments in climate adaptation and resilience building across Southern Africa. Regional cooperation is essential for addressing transboundary water management challenges and sharing knowledge and resources.

Coordinated regional approaches to drought monitoring, early warning, and response can improve effectiveness and efficiency. Regional institutions can facilitate knowledge exchange, coordinate research and development efforts, and mobilize resources more effectively than individual countries acting alone.

Addressing Root Causes

Ultimately, addressing climate-intensified droughts requires tackling the root cause of climate change through rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions globally. While Southern Africa contributes minimally to global emissions, the region is experiencing some of the most severe impacts of climate change caused primarily by emissions from developed countries and major emerging economies.

International climate negotiations must deliver on commitments to limit global warming and provide adequate support for adaptation in vulnerable regions. The longer global emissions continue to rise, the more severe drought impacts will become, potentially exceeding the limits of adaptation and creating irreversible losses.

Knowledge and Capacity Building

Strengthening scientific understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation options in Southern Africa is essential for effective response. This includes improving climate models and projections for the region, conducting vulnerability assessments, evaluating adaptation interventions, and developing locally appropriate technologies and practices.

Building capacity at all levels—from national governments to local communities—to understand climate risks and implement adaptation measures is critical. This includes technical training, institutional strengthening, and support for community-based adaptation planning and implementation.

Conclusion

Climate change is fundamentally transforming drought patterns in Southern Africa, making droughts more frequent, severe, and prolonged. Rising temperatures increase evaporation rates and soil moisture depletion, while shifting rainfall patterns create greater variability and unpredictability. These changes are having devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and human wellbeing across the region.

The 2023/2024 drought, driven by a strong El Niño event and amplified by long-term climate change, has exposed the severe vulnerability of Southern African countries to climate-related water scarcity. Millions of people face food insecurity, water shortages, and economic losses as a result of crop failures and depleted water sources. The crisis has triggered significant humanitarian response efforts, but emergency assistance alone is insufficient to address the underlying drivers of vulnerability.

Building resilience to climate-intensified droughts requires sustained investment in adaptation across multiple sectors and scales. This includes transforming agricultural systems to be more drought-resilient, improving water resource management, strengthening early warning and response systems, protecting and restoring ecosystems, and addressing governance and infrastructure deficits. Regional cooperation and adequate climate finance are essential for supporting these adaptation efforts.

Ultimately, the severity of future droughts in Southern Africa will depend on global success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting further warming. The region is already experiencing severe impacts at current warming levels, and further temperature increases will make droughts even more challenging to manage. International climate action must deliver on commitments to support adaptation in vulnerable regions while rapidly reducing emissions to prevent catastrophic climate change.

The people of Southern Africa have demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of climate challenges, but there are limits to adaptation. Without urgent action to address both the symptoms and root causes of climate-intensified droughts, the region faces the prospect of increasingly severe humanitarian crises, economic losses, and development setbacks. The time for action is now, before climate change pushes communities and ecosystems beyond their capacity to adapt.

For more information on climate change impacts in Africa, visit the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the World Meteorological Organization. To learn about drought monitoring and response efforts, see the Global Drought Observatory. For updates on humanitarian response in Southern Africa, visit the World Food Programme and Southern African Development Community websites.