The Science Behind Extreme Weather Events and Their Causes

Understanding Extreme Weather Events: A Comprehensive Scientific Overview

Extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent and severe in recent years, capturing the attention of scientists, policymakers, and the public alike. The last two years (2023 and 2024) shattered previous records with 28 and 27 billion-dollar disasters, respectively. Understanding the science behind these phenomena is crucial for developing effective responses and mitigating their impacts on communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems worldwide.

Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the first half of 2025 cost the US $101.4 billion. These staggering figures underscore the urgent need to comprehend the mechanisms driving extreme weather and to implement strategies that can reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience in the face of our changing climate.

What Are Extreme Weather Events?

An extreme weather event is defined as ‘an event that is rare at a particular place and time of year’, and an extreme climate event as ‘a pattern of extreme weather that persists for some time, such as a season’. These events significantly deviate from the average or expected patterns for a given location and can manifest in various forms across different regions and seasons.

Types of Extreme Weather Events

Extreme weather events encompass a wide range of phenomena, each with distinct characteristics and impacts:

Heatwaves and Heat Domes: Prolonged periods of excessively hot weather that can cause heat-related illnesses and fatalities
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding: Intense precipitation events that can overwhelm drainage systems and cause devastating floods
Severe Storms and Hurricanes: Powerful cyclonic systems bringing destructive winds, storm surge, and torrential rain
Snowstorms and Blizzards: Extreme winter weather events characterized by heavy snowfall and strong winds
Droughts: Extended periods of abnormally low precipitation leading to water scarcity
Atmospheric Rivers: Narrow corridors of concentrated moisture transport that can deliver extreme precipitation
Bomb Cyclones: Rapidly intensifying low-pressure systems that produce severe weather conditions
Derechos: Widespread, long-lasting windstorms with straight-line winds
Polar Vortex Disruptions: Events where Arctic air masses move southward, bringing extreme cold

Emerging Weather Phenomena in Public Discourse

These things like polar vortex and bombogenisis and atmospheric river and derecho, every one of those have been around for decades, particularly in the atmospheric sciences and meteorology literature. While these terms may seem new to the general public, they represent well-established scientific concepts that have gained prominence due to increased extreme weather occurrence and enhanced science communication.

Atmospheric rivers are narrow, elongated corridors of concentrated moisture transport that occur in the lower atmosphere, ahead of the cold front in an extratropical cyclone. They are the largest transport mechanisms of freshwater on Earth. These phenomena can deliver beneficial precipitation for water resources but also pose significant flooding risks when they make landfall.

Storms with central pressures that fall an average of least 1 millibar per hour for 24 hours are called “bomb cyclones”. During a bomb cyclone, the storm’s central pressure drops rapidly, leading to intensified winds and precipitation. These rapidly intensifying systems can produce hurricane-force winds and extreme precipitation in mid-latitude regions.

The Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather

Climate change has emerged as a significant factor in the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases “have led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes”. The scientific evidence linking human activities to changes in extreme weather has strengthened considerably in recent years.

How Rising Temperatures Affect Weather Patterns

The rise in global temperatures affects weather patterns through several interconnected mechanisms:

Increased Heat Intensity: Climate change has already increased the magnitude and frequency of extreme hot events and decreased the frequency and intensity of hot extremes have increased and those of cold extremes have decreased.
Enhanced Atmospheric Moisture: Climate model projections show that the increase in water vapour leads to robust increases in precipitation extremes everywhere, with a magnitude that varies between 4% and 8% per degree celsius of surface warming. Warmer air can hold more moisture, resulting in heavier rainfall events.
Sea Level Rise: Rising sea levels increase the risk of coastal flooding during storms. Extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.
Ocean Warming: Warmer ocean temperatures can fuel more intense tropical cyclones and affect marine ecosystems

The Science of Attribution: Linking Events to Climate Change

World Weather Attribution uses weather observations and climate models to understand how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. This relatively new field of attribution science has revolutionized our ability to understand the role of human-caused climate change in specific weather events.

Attribution science figures out the likelihood or severity of a particular event happening today compared to how it might have unfolded in an imaginary world that humans have not warmed. Probabilistic attribution involves scientists running climate models thousands of times in scenarios with and without human-caused climate change, then comparing the two. This allows them to say how much more likely, intense or long-lasting an event was due to climate change.

All 67 extreme heat events — identified as significant based on record-setting temperatures or major impacts to people or property — were found to be influenced by climate change. This finding from recent research demonstrates the pervasive influence of human-caused warming on heat extremes globally.

70 percent of 405 extreme weather events were made more likely or more intense by human-induced climate change. 92 percent of 122 attribution studies of extreme heat found that climate change made them more likely or more severe. 58 percent of 81 rainfall studies found that human activity made them more probable or intense.

Feedback Loops and Amplification Mechanisms

Feedback loops can exacerbate extreme weather events and accelerate climate change through self-reinforcing cycles:

Ice-Albedo Feedback: As polar ice melts, less sunlight is reflected back to space, leading to further warming of the Arctic and surrounding regions. This can affect atmospheric circulation patterns globally.
Wildfire-Carbon Feedback: Increased temperatures and drought conditions lead to more frequent and intense forest fires, which release stored carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere, further warming the planet.
Permafrost Thawing: Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice.
Heat Dome Intensification: Human-induced climate change plays a significant role in the formation of heat domes, as heat domes are more likely to occur in higher atmospheric temperatures. The occurrence of heat domes contributes to the positive feedback loop of increased climate change by resulting in overall higher atmospheric temperatures.

Natural Variability and Climate Oscillations

While climate change plays a significant role in extreme weather, natural variability also contributes to these events. Understanding the interplay between human-caused warming and natural climate patterns is essential for accurate prediction and attribution.

El Niño and La Niña Phenomena

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which can cause dramatic shifts in weather patterns across the globe. These phenomena affect ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and influence atmospheric circulation worldwide.

Many extreme events that took place in the beginning of 2024 were influenced by El Niño. However, most of our studies found that climate change played a bigger role than El Niño in fueling these events, including the historic drought in the Amazon. This finding highlights how human-caused warming is increasingly dominating over natural climate variability.

Ocean Currents and Atmospheric Circulation

Changes in ocean currents can influence climate and weather systems on regional and global scales. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and other ocean-atmosphere interactions play crucial roles in determining weather patterns.

Experts link the stretch of U.S. weather extremes to a sharply dipping jet stream. The jet stream is the river of air that moves weather from west to east on a roller coaster-like path. Numerous studies have connected unusual jet stream and polar vortex activity to shrinking Arctic sea ice and human-caused climate change.

Local Geographic Factors

Geographic features such as mountains, valleys, and bodies of water significantly affect local weather patterns and can contribute to extreme weather events:

Orographic Effects: Mountains can block or redirect weather systems, leading to localized storms on windward sides and rain shadows on leeward sides
Lake-Effect Precipitation: Large lakes may contribute to increased snowfall in nearby areas through enhanced moisture availability and localized temperature contrasts
Coastal Influences: Proximity to oceans moderates temperature extremes but can increase exposure to tropical cyclones and storm surge
Urban Heat Islands: Cities create their own microclimates that can amplify heat extremes

Understanding Heat Domes and Urban Heat Islands

A heat dome is a weather phenomenon consisting of extreme heat that is caused when the atmosphere traps hot air as if bounded by a lid or cap. Heat domes happen when strong high pressure atmospheric conditions remain stationary for an unusual amount of time, preventing convection and precipitation and keeping hot air “trapped” within a region.

The Mechanics of Heat Domes

Heat domes can arise in still and dry summer conditions, when a mass of warm air builds up, and the high pressure from the Earth’s atmosphere pushes the warm air down. The air is then compressed, and as its net heat is now in a smaller volume, it increases in temperature. As the warm air attempts to rise, the high pressure above it acts as a dome, forcing the air down and causing it to get hotter and hotter, resulting in increased pressure below the dome.

Recent heat dome events have demonstrated the deadly potential of these phenomena. Portland, Oregon, experienced a record high temperature of 116°F during a heat dome in the summer of 2021, a 42°F spike above average. As a result of the event, 69 people died.

Urban Heat Island Effect

The relative warmth of a city compared with surrounding rural areas is caused by “heat trapping due to land use, the configuration and design of the built environment, including street layout and building size, the heat-absorbing properties of urban building materials, reduced ventilation, reduced greenery and water features, and domestic and industrial heat emissions generated directly from human activities”.

The temperature difference between urban areas and the surrounding suburban or rural areas can be as much as 5 °C (9.0 °F). However, the effect can be even more pronounced during extreme heat events. Neighborhoods in the same city can have temperatures differing by roughly 15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit at the same time depending on their levels of tree cover.

Climate change is not the cause of urban heat islands, but it is causing more frequent and more intense heat waves, which in turn amplify the urban heat island effect in cities. Compact and dense urban development may also increase the urban heat island effect, leading to higher temperatures and increased exposure.

About 85% of the U.S. population currently lives in metro areas, and the heat island effect is felt most intensely in New Orleans, New York City, Houston, San Francisco and Newark, New Jersey. This widespread exposure underscores the importance of urban planning strategies that mitigate heat island effects.

Recent Extreme Weather Trends and Statistics

The frequency and cost of extreme weather events have increased dramatically in recent years, providing stark evidence of changing climate patterns.

Economic Impacts

In 2024 alone, the world witnessed record-breaking temperatures, with the World Meteorological Organization confirming it as the hottest year on record. According to Munich Re, the total economic losses from natural disasters in 2024 exceeded $320 billion globally, nearly 40% higher than the decade-long annual average.

Costs continued to rise, reaching an average of $153.2 billion per year during 2020-2024 — a 50% increase over the 2010s. These trends reflect both the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather and the growing number of people, homes, and businesses exposed to these hazards.

During the first six months of 2025, there have been 14 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the U.S., costing $101.4 billion. The Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025 were the costliest event so far this year as well as the costliest wildfire event on record — exceeding $60 billion, or about twice as much as the previous record.

Human Health and Displacement

Climate-related disasters have displaced over 20 million people annually in the past decade. Climate change contributed to the deaths of at least 3,700 people and the displacement of millions in 26 weather events we studied in 2024.

Over the 12-month period, 4 billion people — about 49% of the global population — experienced at least 30 days of extreme heat (hotter than 90% of temperatures observed in their local area over the 1991-2020 period). This widespread exposure to extreme heat highlights the global nature of the climate crisis.

Globally, climate change added on average 41 additional days of dangerous heat in 2024 that threatened people’s health. The countries that experienced the highest number of dangerous heat days are overwhelmingly small island and developing states, who are highly vulnerable and considered to be on the frontlines of climate change.

Recent Notable Events

The year 2024 and early 2025 witnessed numerous extreme weather events that broke records and caused significant impacts:

Extreme weather reached dangerous new heights in 2024. This year’s record-breaking temperatures fueled unrelenting heatwaves, drought, wildfire, storms and floods that killed thousands of people and forced millions from their homes.
Record-breaking global temperatures in 2024 translated to record-breaking downpours. From Kathmandu, to Dubai, to Rio Grande do Sul, to the Southern Appalachians, the last 12 months have been marked by a large number of devastating floods. Of the 16 floods we studied, 15 were driven by climate change-amplified rainfall.
The Southern California wildfires causes 30 deaths, with the Eaton Fire burning 14,021 acres (5,674 ha), while the Palisades Fire burned 23,448 acres (9,489 ha), being the second and third most destructive wildfires in California history, respectively.

Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Society

The impacts of extreme weather events extend far beyond immediate physical damage, affecting various aspects of society in complex and interconnected ways.

Human Health Consequences

Extreme weather poses direct and indirect threats to human health:

Heat-Related Illness: Increased temperatures can lead to heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and exacerbation of cardiovascular and respiratory conditions
Air Quality Deterioration: Heat domes coincide with stagnant atmospheric conditions, exacerbating air quality issues. Common byproducts include increased smog and pollution levels.
Mental Health Impacts: Nearly 9% of U.S. adults reported their neighborhood was affected “a lot” by extreme weather events in the past year. Being affected “a lot” and “some/a little” by extreme weather was negatively associated with health status.
Infectious Disease Spread: Flooding and changing temperature patterns can alter the distribution of disease vectors and waterborne pathogens
Vulnerable Populations: The elderly, children, outdoor workers, and those with pre-existing health conditions face heightened risks during extreme weather events

Infrastructure and Economic Damage

Severe storms, flooding, and other extreme events can cause extensive damage to critical infrastructure:

Transportation Networks: Roads, bridges, railways, and airports can be damaged or rendered impassable, disrupting supply chains and emergency response
Energy Systems: Spikes in air conditioning use stress electrical grids and can lead to brownouts or blackouts. Power generation and transmission infrastructure can also be directly damaged by extreme weather
Water Infrastructure: Flooding can overwhelm drainage systems and contaminate water supplies, while droughts strain water treatment and distribution systems
Buildings and Housing: Extreme winds, flooding, and wildfires can destroy homes and commercial structures, displacing residents and disrupting businesses
Communication Systems: Damage to telecommunications infrastructure can impair emergency communications and coordination

Agricultural and Food Security Impacts

Extreme weather events pose significant threats to agricultural production and food security:

Crop Failures: Droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures can devastate crops, reducing yields and threatening food supplies
Livestock Stress: Heat waves and water scarcity can harm livestock health and productivity
Soil Degradation: Extreme rainfall can cause erosion, while droughts can lead to desertification
Supply Chain Disruptions: Transportation damage and storage facility impacts can prevent food from reaching markets
Economic Losses: Farmers face financial hardship from crop losses, increased input costs, and market volatility

Ecosystem and Biodiversity Effects

Natural ecosystems face mounting pressures from extreme weather:

Habitat Loss: Wildfires, floods, and droughts can destroy critical habitats for wildlife
Species Displacement: Changing conditions force species to migrate or face extinction
Marine Impacts: Heat domes increase the thermal stress of organisms living in intertidal ecosystems, a factor that has previously led to the deaths of marine species during the 2021 North American Heat Dome.
Forest Degradation: Heat domes have been linked to the widespread damage of trees, primarily through high solar irradiation. Alongside foliar scorching as a result of heat stress, the evolutionary creation and success of heat-resilient foliar species were byproducts of heat domes.

Future Projections and Climate Scenarios

Understanding how extreme weather may evolve in the coming decades is essential for planning and adaptation efforts.

IPCC Projections for Extreme Events

Even relatively small incremental increases in global warming (+0.5°C) cause statistically significant changes in extremes on the global scale and for large regions. In particular, this is the case for temperature extremes, the intensification of heavy precipitation including that associated with tropical cyclones, and the worsening of droughts in some regions.

The occurrence of extreme events unprecedented in the observed record will rise with increasing global warming, even at 1.5°C of global warming. Projected percentage changes in frequency are higher for the rarer extreme events. This means that the most extreme events will become disproportionately more common as temperatures rise.

In the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions. For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2°C of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health.

Regional Variations in Future Extremes

Climate change will not affect all regions equally. Some areas will experience more dramatic changes than others:

Arctic Amplification: Warming over land is larger than the global average, and it is more than twice as high in the Arctic.
Precipitation Patterns: Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the subtropics. Changes to monsoon precipitation are expected, which will vary by region.
Coastal Vulnerability: Coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion.
Compound Events: The probability of compound events has likely increased in the past due to human-induced climate change and will likely continue to increase with further global warming. Concurrent heatwaves and droughts have become more frequent, and this trend will continue with higher global warming.

Unprecedented Events and Timing

Future extreme events will also occur with unprecedented frequency. Certain types of extremes may occur in regions that have not previously encountered those types of events. For example, as the sea level rises, coastal ﬂooding may occur in new locations, and wildﬁres are already occurring in areas, such as parts of the Arctic, where the probability of such events was previously low.

Extreme events may also be unprecedented in their timing. Heat waves may occur earlier in the season or persist later into the year, disrupting ecosystems and human activities adapted to historical seasonal patterns.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

Addressing the challenges posed by extreme weather events requires a comprehensive approach combining both mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its unavoidable impacts.

Climate Change Mitigation

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains the most fundamental strategy for limiting future extreme weather:

Transitioning to Renewable Energy: Replacing fossil fuels with solar, wind, hydroelectric, and other renewable energy sources reduces carbon dioxide emissions
Energy Efficiency: Improving efficiency in buildings, transportation, and industry reduces overall energy demand and associated emissions
Carbon Capture and Storage: Technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere or prevent its release can help achieve net-zero emissions
Sustainable Land Use: Protecting forests, restoring degraded lands, and implementing sustainable agriculture practices can sequester carbon and reduce emissions
Methane Reduction: Limiting other greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both for health and the climate.

Infrastructure Resilience

Building resilient infrastructure can reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events:

Climate-Resilient Design: Incorporating future climate projections into building codes and infrastructure planning ensures structures can withstand more extreme conditions
Green Infrastructure: Trees and other plants can lower temperatures in shaded areas by as much as 10°F—a significant cooling effect that can protect individuals from heat-related illness and death. Neighborhoods with more canopy cover stay cooler.
Flood Management: Improved drainage systems, retention basins, and natural flood barriers can reduce flood damage
Grid Modernization: Upgrading transformers, expanding renewable energy capacity, and implementing demand-response programs can enhance energy system resilience
Coastal Protection: Sea walls, beach nourishment, and natural coastal buffers can protect against storm surge and erosion

Community Preparedness and Early Warning Systems

Educating communities and implementing effective warning systems can save lives during extreme events:

Early Warning Systems: Early warning systems for extreme weather events, combined with mobile technology, are already saving lives in countries like Bangladesh and the Philippines.
Emergency Response Planning: Developing and practicing emergency response plans ensures coordinated action during disasters
Public Education: Improved alert systems and public health campaigns to inform people of upcoming heat threats help individuals take protective actions
Cooling Centers: These facilities are located within a city and are typically air-conditioned or cooled buildings that have been designated to provide respite and safety during extreme heat.
Vulnerable Population Support: Targeted assistance for elderly, low-income, and other at-risk populations ensures equitable protection

Urban Heat Mitigation Strategies

Specific strategies can reduce the urban heat island effect and protect city residents:

Cool Roofs and Pavements: The heat island effect can be counteracted slightly by using white or reflective materials to build houses, roofs, pavements, and roads, thus increasing the overall albedo of the city.
Urban Greening: Increasing tree canopy coverage and green spaces provides shade and evaporative cooling
Smart Urban Planning: Concentric expansion of cities is unfavourable in terms of the urban heat island phenomenon. It is recommended to plan the development of cities in strips, consistent with the hydrographic network, taking into account green areas with various plant species.
Building Design: Incorporating natural ventilation, green roofs, and heat-resistant materials in new construction

Agricultural Adaptation

Farmers and ranchers can implement various strategies to cope with extreme weather:

Crop Diversification: Growing multiple crop varieties reduces vulnerability to specific weather extremes
Drought-Resistant Varieties: Selecting or developing crop varieties adapted to water scarcity
Irrigation Management: Efficient irrigation systems and water conservation practices
Livestock Protection: Shade and misting can also help ranchers to keep herds cool during heat waves. In addition to these tools, ranchers help cattle cool down by reducing high-energy foods and providing plentiful cool, clean water.
Soil Health: Building soil organic matter improves water retention and resilience to both drought and flooding

Policy and Governance Frameworks

Effective governance is essential for implementing strategies to combat extreme weather events and their impacts.

International Cooperation

Climate change is a global issue requiring collaborative efforts across nations:

Paris Agreement: International commitments to limit global warming and reduce emissions provide a framework for collective action
Technology Transfer: To fully leverage these tools, equitable access is paramount. Many of the world’s poorest communities lack the infrastructure and resources to benefit from such innovations, underscoring the importance of international cooperation in sharing technology and expertise.
Climate Finance: The United Nations estimates that developing countries alone will require $187–359 billion annually by 2030 to adapt effectively, yet current funding levels are nowhere close.
Knowledge Sharing: Exchanging best practices and lessons learned helps all nations improve their resilience

National and Regional Policies

National governments play crucial roles in addressing extreme weather through policy and regulation:

Building Codes: Some regions are adapting building standards to better withstand extreme heat.
Land Use Planning: Restricting development in high-risk areas such as floodplains and wildfire-prone zones
Disaster Risk Reduction: Improved knowledge about changes in the probability and magnitude of relevant extreme events enables better quantiﬁcation of disaster risks.
Insurance and Risk Management: Developing insurance mechanisms and risk-sharing arrangements to help communities recover from disasters

Local Action Plans

Tailored strategies at the community level can address specific vulnerabilities:

Vulnerability Assessments: Identifying local risks and vulnerable populations enables targeted interventions
Community Engagement: Involving residents in planning and decision-making ensures solutions meet local needs
Nature-Based Solutions: Restoring wetlands, protecting watersheds, and preserving green spaces provide multiple benefits
Equity Considerations: Vulnerable communities in the Global South are disproportionately affected, with limited resources to rebuild or recover, underscoring the glaring inequities in the climate crisis. Ensuring that adaptation measures benefit all community members, especially the most vulnerable

The Role of Technology and Innovation

Advances in technology are transforming our ability to predict, monitor, and respond to extreme weather events.

Improved Forecasting and Monitoring

Enhanced observational capabilities and modeling techniques enable better prediction of extreme events:

Satellite Technology: Advanced satellites provide real-time monitoring of weather systems, ocean temperatures, and land surface conditions
Climate Models: Increasingly sophisticated models can simulate extreme events with greater accuracy and at finer spatial scales
Artificial Intelligence: Artificial intelligence (AI) powered climate models, for example, can provide hyper-localized weather forecasts, helping farmers plan their crops or urban planners design resilient infrastructure.
Rapid Attribution: Thanks to new scientific advances, attribution studies are a lot faster. Today, we can sometimes complete attribution studies in the weeks after an event, rather than years.

Data and Information Systems

Comprehensive data collection and sharing enhance understanding and response capabilities:

Disaster Databases: The non-profit organization, which analyzes and reports on climate science, announced Wednesday that it has taken over the Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disaster dataset. The database tracks the cost of climate change-fueled weather disasters such as floods, heatwaves, and wildfires, providing critical information to help first responders, the insurance industry, and researchers with their planning, recovery operations, and weather assessments.
Open Data Platforms: Making climate and weather data publicly accessible enables broader research and application development
Real-Time Monitoring Networks: Ground-based sensors and weather stations provide continuous observations of local conditions

Communication Technologies

Modern communication tools facilitate rapid dissemination of warnings and coordination of response efforts:

Mobile Alerts: Smartphone-based warning systems can reach large populations quickly with location-specific information
Social Media: Platforms enable real-time information sharing and community coordination during emergencies
Emergency Communication Networks: Resilient communication systems ensure connectivity during disasters when regular networks may fail

Conclusion: Building Resilience in an Era of Extremes

Understanding the science behind extreme weather events and their causes is crucial for developing effective responses to one of the most pressing challenges of our time. This exceptional year of extreme weather shows how dangerous life has already become with 1.3°C of human-induced warming, and highlights the urgency of moving away from planet-heating fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

The evidence is clear that human activities are driving changes in the frequency, intensity, and character of extreme weather events worldwide. As the planet warms, the influence of climate change increasingly overrides other natural phenomena affecting the weather. This reality demands urgent action on multiple fronts—from aggressive emissions reductions to comprehensive adaptation measures.

By recognizing the interplay between climate change, natural variability, and geographic factors, we can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of these increasingly common phenomena. Success will require coordinated efforts across all levels of society, from international cooperation to local community action, supported by continued scientific research and technological innovation.

With continued warming, our future odds of experiencing once “unprecedented” events like the 2021 heat dome will grow. Knowing that these events are more likely because of climate change allows us to make more climate-informed decisions and prepare for future heat events to reduce their impacts. The path forward demands both ambition in reducing emissions and wisdom in adapting to changes already underway.

For more information on climate science and extreme weather, visit the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Weather Attribution, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Central, and the EPA’s Heat Island Effect resources.

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